El aislamiento social, preventivo y obligatorio decretado por el gobierno como respuesta al coronavirus ha tenido -y seguirá teniendo- consecuencias muy graves para nuestra economía. El parate en la actividad productiva y comercial ha afectado a sectores que tienen poco margen para enfrentar una situación de esta magnitud. Sus consecuencias se extienden a todo el mundo, ante una crisis global sin precedentes. Como resultado, la economía se contraerá aproximadamente un 3% en el mundo, en la región un 5,2% y en Argentina un 5,7% de acuerdo al WEO del FMI – la peor recesión en 50 años. Frente a este contexto, muchos gobiernos respondieron con medidas de política fiscal expansivas para estimular la economía y sostener el consumo.

Los paquetes de estímulo fiscal varían en tamaño de acuerdo al país. En Alemania, el estímulo fiscal se compone principalmente de préstamos bancarios garantizados por el Estado. También incluye subsidios a empresas y trabajadores, protección social para cuentapropistas, y refuerzo de insumos en el sistema de salud. En esta misma línea, Reino Unido y Francia destinan gran parte de su paquete de estímulo fiscal a garantías a préstamos bancarios. Asimismo, las medidas incluyen fondos destinados al sector de la salud, recortes y postergación de impuestos.

En el caso de Estados Unidos, su paquete fiscal de más de 2,3 billones de dólares, incluye transferencias directas de u$s1200 a las personas, préstamos con tasas de interés al 0% para empresas de menos de 500 empleados, refuerzo de los seguros de desempleo, y fondos para el sistema de salud. Es el estímulo fiscal más grande de su historia y es tres veces más grande que el paquete implementado tras la crisis del 2008.

Según estimaciones provisorias del FMI y la OCDE, las medidas adoptadas por Francia equivaldrían a aproximadamente el 19% de su PBI, en el Reino Unido a 20% de su PBI, en Alemania a 28% del PBI (si se tienen en cuenta las garantías para préstamos) y en Estados Unidos a cerca del 12% de su Producto Bruto Interno. Otros países también se destacan, como Japón, donde el estímulo fiscal sería de aproximadamente 20% de su PBI. Argentina tuvo una respuesta mucho más modesta, ya que las políticas implementadas en este marco representan menos del 3% de su PBI.

Entre las medidas que tomó Argentina, donde las políticas de contención han sido más rigurosas que en otros países y, por lo tanto, sus consecuencias mayores, si bien se ha reforzado el piso de protección social, falta protección para los cuentapropistas, ya que muchos quedaron excluidos del Ingreso Familiar de Emergencia. Además, en la práctica, las medidas adoptadas para inyectar liquidez y sostener a las pymes no han tenido el impacto esperado. La burocracia y la rigurosidad de los requisitos no ayudan. Tampoco ha habido una respuesta desde el lado de la política impositiva.

La pregunta es, ¿cómo han financiado los países sus paquetes de estímulo fiscal? Con emisión de deuda y dinero. Por ejemplo, el gobierno de Estados Unidos emitirá deuda que tomará en parte el sector privado y mayoritariamente su banco central (la Reserva Federal). De esa forma, aunque siempre es un riesgo, la respuesta de la Reserva Federal ayudará a sostener la economía en un contexto donde hay demanda. El Banco Central Europeo también cumplirá ese rol.

En la Argentina hay muy poco margen para hacer frente a esta situación por esa vía. Por un lado, endeudarnos es muy difícil en medio de un proceso de reestructuración de deuda y, de hacerlo, sería a tasas elevadísimas. Por otro lado, emitir conlleva un enorme riesgo por la aceleración inflacionaria en el mediano plazo. El gobierno ha utilizado esta herramienta y como resultado, la base monetaria ya creció en casi un 40% solo en marzo (87% en el último año, más de 1,1 billones de pesos). Esto ha tenido ya un rápido impacto sobre los precios del dólar libre.

De esta forma, queda de manifiesto que Argentina debe evaluar otras opciones para solventar el costo fiscal de las medidas implementadas: la política fiscal, impuestos y gastos. En el orden mundial se está debatiendo la política impositiva para estos fines. En este sentido, la OCDE ha recomendado repensar las estructuras impositivas, pero con una visión integral, tendiendo a la progresividad y el impulso a la inversión para apuntalar el crecimiento.

El otro punto a observar, y que debería revisarse junto a cualquier reforma impositiva, es el gasto ineficiente del Estado. Según el BID, el monto total del malgasto en Argentina representa casi 7% del PBI, por encima del promedio de la región. Su principal componente son las filtraciones en transferencias sociales (no llegan a los beneficiarios, ya sea por error de diseño o implementación), el malgasto en compras públicas y en salarios públicos. Respecto de este último ítem, cabe destacar que el gasto en empleo público representa más de 12 puntos porcentuales del PBI, el más alto de la región y por encima del promedio de los países de la OCDE. Esto debería reducirse al máximo posible.

Teniendo todo esto en cuenta, nuestra política fiscal debiera hacer un esfuerzo superior al actual si se quiere evitar una recesión mayor a la esperada. Si bien el panorama económico no es muy alentador, asignar estratégicamente el gasto público y reformar el sistema tributario para maximizar la eficiencia de ambos y mejorar su incidencia distributiva, pueden resultar beneficiosos para mitigar los efectos económicos del confinamiento obligatorio.

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