Dip. Alejandro Cacace (UCR – San Luis)
El gobierno nacional, mediante el Consenso Fiscal 2019, le permite a las provincias que aumenten impuestos que se habían comprometido a reducir y eliminar. El Consenso Fiscal 2019, al contrario que sus homónimos impulsados por el gobierno anterior, es un instrumento que concretamente viene a permitir el incremento de impuestos provinciales y suspensión de reducciones de alícuotas que solo elevarán la carga tributaria provincial para los contribuyentes del impuesto sobre los ingresos brutos, impuesto de sellos y del impuesto inmobiliario, entre otros. 

Los Consensos Fiscales 2017 y 2018 se pusieron como objetivo reducir y/o eliminar impuestos distorsivos, compromiso contraído hasta el año 2022. A cambio, cedería más fondos a las provincias. Los beneficiados, serían los contribuyentes, particulares, empresas, productores, y se incentivaría de esa forma la actividad productiva. Las provincias no se verían a la larga demasiado afectadas en sus finanzas por aquellas compensaciones.

Cobra relevancia entonces, sobre todo en los años que resta cumplir del acuerdo fiscal, el recorte impositivo previsto. Por ejemplo, el establecimiento de alícuotas máximas, de acuerdo a la actividad, para el 2020 y años siguientes en Ingresos Brutos, es de extrema importancia para las nuevas actividades que han surgido a partir del Consenso Fiscal y aquellas que han crecido desde su implementación.

De un análisis realizado por el Instituto Argentino de Análisis Fiscal, surge que respecto a las cuatro principales actividades que grava Ingresos Brutos: industria manufacturera; construcción; restaurante y hoteles; y comercio, las 21 provincias más C.A.B.A. firmantes (no firmaron San Luis y La Pampa) tendrían que reducir en el 2020 en promedio el 33% sus alícuotas para adecuarlas a los topes del Consenso Fiscal, mientras que en el rubro construcción se verían obligadas 21 de 22 jurisdicciones firmantes (excepto Santa Fe) deberían haber reducido en promedio el 20% sus alícuotas de Ingresos Brutos. 

En el rubro comercio, la suspensión del Consenso no afectaría a la actividad ya que no se preveía una baja de las alícuotas para ella, manteniéndola hasta el 2022 en 5%. En restaurantes y hoteles, la mitad de las provincias se verían obligadas a reducir sus alícuotas y las demás podrían incluso subirlas o mantenerlas para respetar el límite de 4% para el 2020. 

En este contexto, sobre todo para los sectores industriales y de la construcción, la suspensión por un año afectaría su tasa de rentabilidad y pondría en jaque a muchos de estos contribuyentes en un contexto recesivo como el actual. 

Otro ejemplo del efecto negativo de la suspensión del Consenso Fiscal es la actividad agropecuaria, que ya vio el incremento de los derechos de exportación recientemente, y ahora tendrá que afrontar Ingresos Brutos, actividad para la cual el Consenso había previsto su exención, y que tendrá un gran impacto en la cadena productiva. Sin tener en cuenta estos cambios, la Fundación FADA, en su Índice FADA, Participación del Estado en la renta agrícola, de diciembre pasado, estimó que en promedio el 60,4% de la producción queda en manos del Estado, a través de tributos nacionales, provinciales y municipales.

Cabe preguntarse entonces: ¿es realmente la suspensión del Consenso Fiscal y el consiguiente aumento de tributos provinciales la solución para sanear las arcas de las provincias? Según la Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso, por el Consenso Fiscal 2017, hasta el segundo trimestre de 2019, sostuvo que, en definitiva, “la recaudación de los ingresos tributarios de las provincias comprometidas no tuvo una dinámica significativamente distinta” con respecto a las provincias que no se adhirieron. 

Mi provincia, al no ser firmante del Consenso Fiscal, subió sus impuestos en un 61%. De esa misma manera, las provincias que son firmantes, a partir de esta suspensión, podrán seguir un camino similar de aumento de los tributos provinciales.

 1-Argañaraz, N., Barraud, A., Murúa, M. (2019) Instituto Argentino de Análisis Fiscal -IARAF-  Se interrumpe la baja de Ingresos Brutos prevista para 2020.

 2-Fundación FADA (2019). Índice Fada – Participación del Estado en la renta agrícola. 

3- Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso (2019) Estado de avance del Consenso Fiscal 2017 – Actualización 2019.


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